Research Suggests EV Sales Could Surpass 60% of Global Vehicle Sales by 2030

New research published by three different institutions indicates that global electric vehicle sales could surpass 60% of total vehicle sales by 2030. With Climate Week NYC fast approaching, three separate research pieces from the EEIST Project, Systems Change Lab and RMI predict a massive surge in EV sales over the rest of the decade.

RMI analysis found that worldwide EV sales are poised to meet or even surpass the most overzealous timelines for achieving net-zero emissions. In partnership with the Bezos Earth Fund, RMI’s research found that EV sales may make up more than two-thirds of the global market share by 2030 thanks to “exponential growth trends.”

With plenty of countries worldwide working to cut their carbon emissions in the past few years, electric vehicles and green-energy infrastructure have seen significant public and private investments. Although the pace has been extremely slow, electric vehicles have begun encroaching on the demand for conventional diesel and petrol-powered cars.

Sales of fossil fuel vehicles peaked in 2017, RMI notes, and more petrol and diesel-powered cars will be scrapped compared to the ones being sold by mid-decade. RMI’s research indicates that overall sales of new internal combustion cars are about to peak and will be in freefall as the decade draws to a close.

In the meantime, the research indicates that EV sales in major markets, such as China, the United States and Northern Europe, will rise by at least six times through the decade and achieve a market share anywhere between 62% to 86% by the year 2030. Compared to current projections which put electric cars at a 40% market share by the end of the decade, the recent analysis is extremely optimistic about the electric vehicle industry’s growth.

RMI also predicts a 50% drop in EV battery costs through the decade from $151 per kWh to around $60 to $90 per kWh, ultimately contributing to a reduction in overall EV production costs and making electric cars as affordable or even more affordable than fossil fuel cars by 2030. According to RMI, the Chinese market will boast 90% electric vehicle sales by the end of the decade, far ahead of most other electric-vehicle markets.

China is currently the largest electric-vehicle market on the globe and has significantly invested in building up local automakers and EV charging infrastructure. Alongside Norway and the Netherlands, China has shown that nations can accelerate their EV adoption rate to achieve climate change goals.

As more motorists switch to electric vehicles, the competition between different automakers, including Workhorse Group Inc. (NASDAQ: WKHS), is likely to get stiffer as these companies work to dominate the industry.

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