Automotive sector sources cited by Automobilwoche report that the European Commission plans to reveal its revised carbon dioxide regulations for commercial vehicle fleets in mid-December. December 16 appears to be the target date, though Commission officials declined to confirm specifics.
A spokesperson acknowledged that work continues on the proposal and promised that details would emerge soon. In the meantime, critics warn that the upcoming rules could reshape vehicle markets as dramatically as the bloc’s 2035 zero-emission mandate.
In Germany, Europe’s largest vehicle market, commercial registrations represent two-thirds of new vehicle sales, making the stakes particularly high. The EU defines fleets broadly to include traditional company cars, tactical registrations by manufacturers and dealers, and the entire rental business.
Any quota requirements would impact far more than conventional corporate programs. Rental giant Sixt has already voiced concerns about potential customer fallout. CEO Nico Gabriel warned that strict mandates would force dramatic rate hikes as higher vehicle costs, depressed resale pricing, and elevated service expenses get passed to consumers.
Rumors circulating through automotive circles suggest ambitious targets despite the Commission’s official silence during drafting. People familiar with the matter claim the proposal will mandate at least 50% plug-in models for business registrations by 2027. Speculation points to a 90% requirement arriving by 2030, though neither figure has received confirmation.
Earlier reports suggested the Commission might pursue full electrification by 2030, effectively advancing the overall target by five years. Official silence naturally fuels speculation as stakeholders try anticipating regulatory direction.
Brussels appears to be linking its electrification quotas with the broader 2035 internal combustion phase-out, according to one person briefed on the discussions. Exactly how these policies would connect remains unclear, but the move signals potential flexibility in the EU’s approach. Discussions about easing rigid 2035 regulations extend beyond German political circles, suggesting the bloc may be reconsidering its mechanism for achieving climate targets rather than maintaining strict mandates.
The timing presents significant challenges for automakers and operators in the EU. A proposal unveiled at year-end 2025 would undergo debate throughout 2026 before implementation in its original or modified form.
Binding requirements could take effect during 2026, leaving little time to adjust before a potential 50% electric mandate takes effect in 2027. The compressed timeline comes as manufacturers reconsider their ambitious electrification plans amidst slower than expected EV adoption.
This proposal’s impact could prove comparable to the 2035 rule that effectively ends new internal combustion sales by requiring only vehicles producing no tailpipe emissions. Plug-in propulsion remains the only pathway to meeting that standard, creating what critics call an engine ban by another name. Whether Brussels pursues similar indirect pressure through business vehicle quotas will determine how markets adapt.
EV manufacturers across the Pacific, such as Lucid Motors (NASDAQ: LCID), will be hoping that any tightening of the EU emissions rules open more market opportunities for them in the bloc as motorists shift away from combustion engine vehicles that pollute the environment.
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