Why EV Batteries Last Longer Than Initially Projected

Last year, Stanford University researchers published a high-profile study that directly challenged established projections about EV battery longevity. For years, conventional wisdom held that the battery pack would be the limiting factor on how long an EV could realistically last. But the findings from Stanford University revealed that EV batteries held up roughly 40% longer than earlier laboratory testing had predicted when subjected to real-world conditions. 

Conventionally, the average electric vehicle battery is expected to last for 12 to 15 years of active service before it has to be retired, similar to gasoline and diesel vehicles which typically last between 124,000 and 186,000 miles or 10 to 15 years. 

According to researchers from Stanford University, however, drivers may be able to get more time and value out of their EVs due to past projections underestimating the true lifespan of EV batteries. 

Several factors helped explain why real-world batteries outperformed the predictions generated by laboratory testing alone. Everyday driving involves constant acceleration and braking, a mix of short errands and long road trips, and long stretches where the car simply sits parked. 

That parked time turned out to matter most, giving batteries plenty of downtime that continuous lab cycling never allowed and accounted for. 

Simona Onori, the Stanford researcher who led the analysis, said her team had not evaluated EV batteries in a way that reflected real driving habits, causing EV batteries in test conditions to degrade faster than they would have in real-world conditions. Professor Odne Burheim, a researcher at Norway’s NTNU, formerly the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, outlined two further explanations. 

He said current battery cells are built to a noticeably higher standard than those made in years past. Manufacturers, he added, have also grown more skilled at managing how cells operate. Burheim also cited rising battery capacity, since larger packs make full charging less necessary. 

He recommended keeping a charge of between 10% and 90%, since avoiding both extremes can meaningfully extend a battery’s life. Temperature also plays an important role in battery health, an issue drivers face especially in cold-weather countries like Norway. 

Cold batteries don’t tolerate fast charging well, so many manufacturers warm the pack first through a preheating process before a rapid session starts. Slow charging in cold weather, by contrast, generally poses little risk. High heat creates the opposite problem, and well-designed thermal management has become essential for keeping packs within a safe range. 

Battery degradation tends to follow a recognizable curve, according to researchers studying the issue. Capacity typically drops by roughly 5% within the initial two-year period, followed by a long plateau that can span years and substantial mileage with minimal further decline. 

Only near the end of a battery’s useful life does that decline resume. There was a common assumption that EV batteries would wear out within 8 to 10 years, but accumulating evidence now points toward EVs outlasting gasoline counterparts by a meaningful margin. 

What this study reveals is that a person who buys a recent EV model from any manufacturer, such as Lucid Motors (NASDAQ: LCID), could own that vehicle and it performs reliably for a lot longer than another person who purchased a similar gas-powered vehicle. 

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